PGR3 vs FM2 Scoring Analysis

Posted by: MarkDolven

One of the biggest changes as we enter the second season of the CGS is the scoring change in our racing title. Not only was the switch made to Forza Motorsport 2 from Project Gotham Racing 3, but the scoring was also slightly modified. Last year the Chicago Chimera took full advantage of the scoring system with a lot of 8-1 victories. The question becomes with the change, will things be any different? Will Forza2 be less of an impact game than Project Gotham Racing 3 was? In this article we break it all down using the numbers and results from Region 1.

	PGR3 Scoring	Forza2 Scoring
1st/2nd vs 3rd/4th	8-1 (plus 7)	6-1 (plus 5)
1st/3rd vs 2nd/4th	6-3 (plus 3)	5-2 (plus 3)
1st/4th vs 2nd/3rd	5-4 (plus 1)	4-3 (plus 1)

As you can see by the above chart, the scoring system has changed from 5 points for first, 3 points for second and 1 point for third place to a more conservative 4 points for first, 2 points for second and 1 point for third. This has effectively balanced out the racing title in the grand scheme of things because now the maximum gain is now +5 points instead of +7 that was available last year. This puts Forza2 directly in line with Dead or Alive 4 in terms of maximum blowout potential. The beauty of the new scoring is that it did not effect the point differential in the more popular two set of results, the 1st/3rd and 1st/4th combinations.

The common set of thinking in regards to last year is that the Chicago Chimera won the Region 1 championship and ultimately the World Final behind the speed of their racers. While this may be true, it needs to be addressed on whether this was a product of the system or just the dominance of Ch0mpr and Jason X. One of the best ways to figure out the question is to analyze and break down all of the results from Region 1. We have done that below.

	07 Overall Score	08 Overall Score
Region 1 - EA Studios
Core.PGR > 3D.PGR	Core [28] > 3D [25]	Core [26] > 3D [25]
coL.PGR > Venom.PGR	Venom [24] > coL [20]	Venom [23] > coL [19]
Chi.PGR > Optx.PGR	Optx [25] > Chimera [18]	Optx [25] > Chimera [16]
coL.PGR > 3D.PGR	coL [22] > 3D [20]	coL [21] > 3D [19]
Chi.PGR > Core.PGR	Chimera [26] > Core [18]	Chimera [25] > Core [17]
Venom.PGR > Optx.PGR	Optx [25] > Venom [16]	Optx [24] > Venom [15]
Chi.PGR > coL.PGR	Chimera [27] > coL [16]	Chimera [26] > coL [15]
Optx.PGR > Core.PGR	Optx [26] > Core [19]	Optx [24] > Core [19]
3D.PGR > Venom.PGR	3D [24] > Venom [22]	3D [23] > Venom [21]
Chi.PGR > 3D.PGR	Chimera [31] > 3D [15]	Chimera [29] > 3D [15]
Core.PGR > coL.PGR	Core [24] > coL [17]	Core [22] > coL [17]
Venom.PGR > Optx.PGR	Optx [31] > Venom [22]	Optx [30] > Venom [21]
3D.PGR > Core.PGR	3D [24] > Core [18]	3d [23] > Core [17]
Chi.PGR > Venom.PGR	Chimera [24] > Venom [21]	Chimera [22] > Venom [21]
coL.PGR > Optx.PGR	coL [23] > Optx [22]	coL [22] > Optx [21]
3D.PGR > Optx.PGR	3D [26] > Optx [24]	3D [25] > Optx [23]
Chi.PGR > Core.PGR	Chimera [29] > Core [26]	Chimera [28] > Core [25]
coL.PGR > Venom.PGR	Venom [23] > coL [22]	Venom [22] > coL [21]
Chi.PGR > 3D.PGR	Chimera [25] > 3D [22]	Chimera [23] > 3D [22]
Venom.PGR > Core.PGR	Core [25] > Venom [23]	Core [24] > Venom [22]
coL.PGR > Optx.PGR	coL [28] > Optx [18]	coL [26] > Optx [18]
Region 1 - TV Regular Season
coL.PGR > 3D.PGR	3D [24] > coL [17]	3D [23] > coL [17]
Optx.PGR > Venom.PGR	Optx [25] > Venom [18]	Optx [24] > Venom [17]
Chi.PGR > Core.PGR	Core [22] > Chimera [21]	Core [22] > Chimera [19]
coL.PGR > Optx.PGR	coL [24] > Optx [23]	coL [23] > Optx [22]
Chi.PGR > Venom.PGR	Chimera [23] > Venom [19]	Chimera [21] > Venom [19]
Core.PGR > 3D.PGR	Core [26] > 3D [20]	Core [24] > 3D [20]
Core.PGR > Venom.PGR	Venom [22] > Core [21]	Venom [22] > Core [19]
Chi.PGR > 3D.PGR	3D [25] > Chimera [24]	3D [24] > Chimera [23]
Core.PGR > coL.PGR	Core [27] > coL [16]	Core [26] > coL [15]
Optx.PGR > Chi.PGR	Optx [23] > Chimera [19]	Optx [22] > Chimera [18]
Optx.PGR > 3D.PGR	Optx [28] > 3D [13]	Optx [26] > 3D [13]
coL.PGR > Venom.PGR	coL [26] > Venom [21]	coL [25] > Venom [20]
Core.PGR > Optx.PGR	Optx [25] > Core [19]	Optx [24] > Core [18]
3D.PGR > Venom.PGR	3D [28] > Venom [17]	3D [27] > Venom [16]
Chi.PGR > coL.PGR	Chimera [26] > coL [15]	Chimera [24] > coL [15]
Region 1 - Playoffs
Chi.PGR > 3D.PGR	Chimera [25] > 3D [22]	Chimera [24] > 3D [21]
Core.PGR > Optx.PGR	Core [22] > Optx [19]	Core [20] > Optx [19]
Chi.PGR > Core.PGR	Chimera [22] > Core [21]	Chimera [21] > Core [20]

If you somehow managed to read that chart of information, the first thing you will notice is that of the 38 matches that took place in Region 1, not one overall franchise match would have been different if the Forza2 scoring set had been used last year. That’s a pretty crazy fact considering there were some insanely close matches and a lot of the tides were turned with 8-1 placings. At the end of the day though, statistically, nothing would have changed.

One thing the stats don’t bring into the picture is the emotional turn around that some of these matches feel from the 8-1 factor. For instance in the Region 1 semi-finals when the Core played the San Francisco Optx, an 8-1 finish might have been the difference maker because of the scoring. The night started with Vanessa getting her standard 5-0 victory and that was directly followed by a 3-1 win for Stermy. So after two games, the Optx were in control of the match 8-1. On stage you could tell that all of the momentum was in San Francisco’s corner and that things were looking rough for the Core. After a few glorious laps and about three minutes of time, the score was instantly equalized at 9-9 behind Phantom and Rex dominating San Francisco. This reversed the momentum and pointed the Core in the right direction as they went on to win the match. In the new scoring system, Phantom and Rex would have brought the match back to 9-7 instead of the tie game. Although the Core won the match by a total of three points, it’s tough to say if the CS:S game and then the final Dead or Alive 4 match would have differently if the Optx still had the lead. So although, the 8-1 statistically changed nothing, it is my firm belief that it will definitely be a huge factor mentally.

Also, despite not changing any of the results directly, it made a lot of games closer overall. If you look at the above chart, there are a lot more 1-3 point games, as opposed to some of the blowouts. This provides better competition and is generally better for the sport. So in all honestly, this points change is truly good for the league. It doesn’t instantly turn around matches, but it provides a more equal scoring system.

The “nerfing” of the Forza scoring system doesn’t mean that it is not important. If you again look at the Region 1 results, you will notice that when you win in the racing game, no matter by what margin, your team wins the overall franchise match 71% of the time. That means that if you lose in Forza2 this year, you will only win 29% of your matches. I don’t have the statistics for the other games calculated, but I would speculate that winning in Forza is still the most important of the five disciplines. So to answer our own question from earlier in the article, the Chimera may have won because of their racing team, but it wasn’t because of a flaw in the scoring system. They were just that damn good.